Monday, April 2, 2012

World Autism Awareness Day 2012

Today is World Autism Awareness Day. Originally I was going to post a response to the comments from my post last Friday, “Autism epidemic, anyone?” That follow up post has taken on a life of its own. It’s gotten much bigger than I expected, and I’m still not done writing it. So, I thought I would take a portion of it and break it down a bit, and then I’ll post the rest of it in the next day or two.

Since today is a significant day in the autism community, I thought I should go along the awareness vein and share som very pertinent and timely information that I learned from a friend of mine, Marcella Piper-Terry. She is an independent researcher and has a firm grasp on statistics. She started crunching some numbers related to the autism prevalence and tried to bring those numbers into the present day (since the numbers the CDC released are OLD and out-of-date). See my last blog post for the full explanation of why the CDC’s numbers are old and not very relevant for us today.
What Marcella came up with was shocking. I have no way to verify her numbers, but I appreciate her taking the time to try to make some sense out of things for the rest of us. Regardless, her numbers have much more value to me than what the CDC presented last week.

There was a lot of shock surrounding the increase of autism to 1 in 88. Well, that may be so, but how shocked will you be when you know what the current number is? Keep in mind, Marcella could only go forward with the trends already established. The CDC does not use a population-based model. It is a scattered, incomplete pool of data. If we had more complete numbers that were more representative of the population, I know in my heart that even the numbers Marcella came up with are VERY conservative. The sheer enormity of that, my friends, is what we should be shocked by.

The following are her numbers and her words as she describes them: 


The CDC says the rate of autism is 1 in 88. That number is four years old and is calculated for children who were 8 years old in 2008. The number reflects a 78% increase over the 1 in 150 number that was from 2002 (announced in 2007). Dividing 78% (rate of increase) by 6 (number of years from 2002 to 2008) we get a yearly increase of 13%. This allows us to calculate (approximately) the true rate of autism for 8 year olds in 2012. Using the same 13% per year increase we can extrapolate out five years and figure the approximate true rate of autism for children who are now between 3 and 8 years of age. This photo album contains my chicken scratch notes as I performed these calculations.



Long numbers. I didn't round off anything because I wanted to be completely exact in my calculations. This started out to be just a little exploration, but soon became one of those "Oh, My God... I have to finish this" things. That's why it gets more organized toward the end.

I started with the 1 in 88 number, calculated for 8 year-olds in 2008. This equals 1.14%. The 78% increase over the 1 in 150 number (from 2002) is divided by six (number of years from 2002 to 2008) for an average yearly increase of 13%.

Calculating the yearly increase yields the following:
1 in 78 (2009)
1 in 69 (2010)
1 in 61 (2011)

These numbers are for 8 year-olds diagnosed with autism.
The current number for 8 year-old diagnosed with autism is estimated to be 1 in 54.

Current rates (2012) for children who are less than 8 years old:
1 in 48 for 7 year olds;
1 in 42 for 6 year olds;
1 in 37 for 5 year olds;
1 in 33 for 4 year olds;

1 in 29 for 3 year olds.in 29 for 3 year olds.


Are you scared yet?
Here is something else to think about...
The rate of increase used to calculate these statistics is based on CDC data gathered in 2008. That was before the 2009 H1N1 scare. These numbers are based on the real-world scenario BEFORE the push for the flu vaccine for pregnant women and infants beginning at six months of age. That means that even as ghastly as these numbers are, they are underestimates of the true magnitude of this crisis.
Extrapolating out for the next ten years:
2013 = 1 in 26;
2014 = 1 in 23;
2015 = 1 in 20;
2016 = 1 in 18;

2017 = 1 in 16;
2018 = 1 in 14;
2019 = 1 in 12;
2020 = 1 in 11;
2021 = 1 in 10;
2022 = 1 in 9.6;
2018 = 1 in 14;
2019 = 1 in 12;
2020 = 1 in 11;
2021 = 1 in 10;
2022 = 1 in 9.



I encourage you to look up my friend Marcella Piper-Terry on Facebook and visit her website. She is a force, and she is much more knowledgeable on topics related to autism than I am.
As part of launching Autism Awareness Month and recognizing that today is World Autism Awareness Day, I will share with you one of my favorite slogans about autism. In fact, I purchased a button with this saying and I wear it during the month of April.

April is Autism Awareness Month. Every day is Autism Awareness Day in our home.    
I support Autism Awareness, but I would like to think that we are becoming more aware of autism. The big question mark of “what do we do now that we’re aware of autism” makes me further endorse April as Autism Action Month. We need to act on behalf of our children. 

My friend Cari from Bubble Gum on My Shoe took it a step further and made a t-shirt that says:

My kid has autism. Yours is next.


She’s right. We cannot sit back and do nothing.
I encourage you to speak with your legislators about autism. Share your story. Find autism organizations that are making meaningful contributions to your community and support them. Connect with other autism parents online and locally through support groups. We are each other’s best resource. Let’s act together and try to create positive change for our kids.  

16 comments:

Cari from Bubble Gum on my Shoe said...

WOW! And can we make a t-shirt that says 2022, 1-9? I think yes. Staggering and Marcella is amazing. As are you, my dear. I meet Autism Awareness day with a bit of sadness, because it is the parents and loved ones of the children who are "lighting it up blue" and we are already aware. We need to look beyond the blue lights, because something has to give. Oh, and that Cari is smoking hot.

Caffeinated Autism Mom said...

Yes, that Cari is smoking hot AND bad ass...in a cardigan and apron-wearing kind of way! ;-)

You are going to make bank with your snarky and cool autism t-shirts. You better get moving on this business idea! Did you know I write business plans? Just sayin...

Yes, Autism Awareness Day is a bit draining. I made a point to try to be online more today than usual, so that I could join in on the feeds and tickers and see what's happening on Facebook and in Twitterland. There was a LOT of stuff out there today!

But, as much as a love to spread autism awareness, we have to think ahead to "what's next?" That is the million dollar question for all of us autism parents out there...

working moms support group nyc said...

I'll definitely share this article so that everyone would be aware of the situation. Thank you very much.

Jessica H said...

It's so important to show your support, not only on Autism Awareness Day, but every day.
Working with Autism, located in Los Angeles, has helped hundreds of children with an Autism Spectrum Disorder to achieve their maximum potential for independence. www.workingwithautism.com

Anonymous said...

Just think, using the same math, the rate of autism will be 1 in .9 in 2040 and 1 in .28 in 2050. Such travesty!

Zheng junxai5 said...

zhengjx20160531
juicy couture
michael kors outlet online
michael kors bags
cheap ray ban sunglasses
cheap jordans
polo ralph lauren outlet
kobe shoes 11
kate spade outlet
louis vuitton outlet
rolex watches
cheap ray ban sunglasses
michael kors bags
tory burch shoes
louis vuitton purses
fitflop shoes
michael kors outlet clearance
replica rolex watches
tiffany and co
nike store outlet
louboutin shoes
giuseppe zanotti outlet
michael kors outlet
nike blazers shoes
michael kors handbags
cheap basketball shoes
coach outlet store
gucci handbags
adidas superstar
ray ban sunglasses outlet
true religion jeans
jordan concords
longchamp le pliage
asics running shoes
lebron 13
nike sb janoski
supra footwear
nike air max uk
oakley sunglasses
michael kors handbags
jordan retro 8

Cran Kate said...

Ralph Lauren Outlet
Ugg Boots Sale UGGS For Women Skechers Go Walk Adidas Yeezy Boost Adidas Yeezy Adidas NMD Coach Outlet North Face Outlet Ralph Lauren Outlet Puma SneakersPolo Outlet
Under Armour Outlet Under Armour Hoodies Herve Leger MCM Belt Nike Air Max Louboutin Heels Jordan Retro 11 Converse Outlet Nike Roshe Run UGGS Outlet North Face Outlet
Adidas Originals Ray Ban Lebron James Shoes Sac Longchamp Air Max Pas Cher Chaussures Louboutin Keds Shoes Asics Shoes Coach Outlet Salomon Shoes True Religion Outlet
New Balance Outlet Skechers Outlet Nike Outlet Adidas Outlet Red Bottom Shoes New Jordans Air Max 90 Coach Factory Outlet

dada24 Xu said...

omega replica watches for sale
reebok shoes
ralph lauren uk
christian louboutin shoes
nike free 5.0
nhl jerseys wholesale
polo ralph lauren uk
ugg outlet
hollister uk
louboutin pas cher
christian louboutin outlet
nike air force
coach outlet store
jordan shoes
jordans
coach factory outlet
fitflop uk
nike shoes for cheap
birkenstock uk
ray bans
stephen curry basketball shoes
louis vuitton uk
michael kors canada
cheap jordan shoes
valentino bags
supra store
christian louboutin shoes
adidas nmd runner
canada goose uk
polo ralph lauren
louis vuitton outlet online
moncler jackets
timberland uk
ray ban sunglasses outlet
kobe bryant shoes
versace sunglasses
2016812CAIYAN

caiyan said...

nmd adidas
ugg boots
pandora
cheap uggs
uggs outlet
cheap uggs
coach factory outlet
jimmy choo
ray ban sunglasses
coach outlet
20611015caiyan

chenmeinv0 said...

cheap ray ban sunglasses
canada goose sale
cheap toms shoes
cheap uggs
coach outlet online
cheap cartier watches
michael kors outlet
uggs outlet
cheap rolex watches
adidas superstar sneakers
chenyingying20161018

eric yao said...

Coach Outlet http://www.coachoutletfactory-stores.us.com

North Face Outlet http://www.northface-outlets.com.co

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadefactoryoutlet.in.net

ED Hardy Outlet http://www.edhardypopsale.com

Coach Outlet Store Online http://www.coachstoreonline.in.net

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletstore.in.net

Cheap Jordans http://www.cheapjordansretro.us.com

Michael Kors Outlet Store http://www.michaelkorsoutletsstores.us.com

Coach Purses http://www.coachpurses.eu.com

Coach Outlet http://www.coachoutlet2016.us.com

Tory Burch Shoes http://www.toryburch-outlet.us.org

Longchamp Outlet http://www.longchampoutlet.in.net

Michael Kors Handbags http://www.innnov8.com

Coach Outlet http://www.innnovate.com

Red Bottom Shoes http://www.redbottomshoes.us.org

Moncler Jackets http://www.monclerdownjackets.us.com

North Face Outlet http://www.northfacestoreoutlet.in.net

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletstore.us.com

Moncler Outlet http://www.moncleroutletonline.in.net

Coach Factory http://www.maganates.com

Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachfactorysoutlet.in.net

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katesapdeoutlet.us.org

Ray Ban Outlet http://www.raybanoutletstore.in.net

Christian Louboutin Shoes http://www.christianlouboutinshoes2016.in.net

North Face Outlet http://www.northfaceoutlets.us.org

Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachoutletstore.name

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletonline.name

Coach Outlet http://www.coach-outlets.us.org

Nike Roshe Run http://www.tanie-nikerosherun.pl

Buty Nike Air Max http://www.airmaxsprzedazdla.pl

Nike Air Max http://www.nikeairmax.us.org

Red Bottom Shoes http://www.redbottomshoe.in.net

Christian Louboutin Outlet http://www.christianlouboutinoutlet.us.org

Balenciaga Handbags http://www.balenciagaoutlets.us.com

Balenciaga Handbags http://www.balenciaga-handbags.us.com

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadefactoryoutlet.in.net

Toms Shoes http://www.tomshoesoutlet.us.com

Hermes Belt http://www.hermes-belts.us.com

Prada Outlet http://www.pradafactoryoutlet.com

Louis Vuitton Outlet http://www.louisvuittonsoutlet.us.com

North Face Outlet Store http://www.northfaceoutletstore.in.net

North Face Jackets http://www.north-face.in.net

North Face http://www.north-faceoutlets.us.com

Louis Vuitton Outlet http://www.louisvuitton-outlets.us.org

Timberland Boots http://www.timberland-outlets.us.com

Cheap Timberland Boots http://www.timberlandoutlet.us.com

Tory Burch Outlet http://www.outlettoryburch.us.com

Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michaelkorsoutletusa.us.com

Ralph Lauren Outlet http://www.ralphlaurenstoreoutlet.us.com

Gucci Shoes http://www.guccifactoryoutlet.name

Gucci Outlet http://www.guccioutletco.us.com

North Face Jackets http://www.northfacefactoryoutlet.us.com

Prada Outlet http://www.pradaoutlets.in.net

Hollister Clothing http://www.hollister-clothing.us.com

Ferragamo Shoes http://www.ferragamoshoes.us.org

Tiffany Outlet http://www.tiffany-outlets.us.com

Tiffany Outlet http://www.tiffanyco-outlet.us.com

NFL Jerseys http://www.nfljerseys.name

Toms Outlet http://www.outlettoms.us.com

Cheap Jordans http://www.cheapjordans.eu.com

North Face Outlet http://www.thenorthfaceoutlet.us.org

Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michael-korsoutletstores.us.com

Prada Handbags http://www.pradaoutlet.us.org

Chan Luu Sale http://www.chanluu.us.com

Toms Outlet http://www.tomsoutletstores.us.com

Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletonline.us.org

Beats By Dr Dre http://www.beatsbydrdre.us.org

Coach Outlet http://www.coachstoreoutlet.us.org

Christian Louboutin Shoes http://www.christianlouboutinshoe.eu.com

Valentino Shoes http://www.valentinoshoes.eu.com

Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michaelkorsoutlet.us.org

Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachfactoryoutlet.us.org

Coach Outlet Online http://www.coachoutletonlinestore.us.org

Coach Purses http://www.coachpurse.us.com

chenmeinv0 said...

cheap toms shoes
ray ban sunglasses
cheap uggs
canada goose outlet
nike trainers women
fitflop shoes
mcm bags
ralph lauren
rolex watches
hollister clothing
hzx20170216

Yeezys said...

http://www.nfljerseys.us/ NFL Jerseys

http://www.yeezyboost350.us.com/ Yeezy Boost 350 V2

http://www.longchampbags.us.com/ Longchamp Handbags

http://www.adidas-uk.org.uk/ Adidas UK

http://www.yeezys.org/ Yeezys

http://www.nike-stores.fr/ Nike Store

http://www.underarmouroutlet.us.com/ Under Armour Outlet

http://www.timberlanduk.org.uk/ Timberland Boots

http://www.jordan12.us/ Jordan 12

http://www.yeezy-shoes.us.com/ Yeezy Shoes

http://www.nikehuarache.us/ nike huarache

http://www.kedsshoesforwomen.com/ Keds Shoes For Women

http://www.yeezy.com.co/ Yeezy Shoes

http://www.nikeairmax.us/ Nike Air Max 2017

http://www.outlettoms.us/ Toms Outlet

http://www.ultraboostuncaged.us/ Ultra Boost

http://www.mlb-jerseys.us/ MLB Jerseys

http://www.adidas-nmds.com/ Adidas NMD

http://www.rboutlet.org/ Ray Ban Outlet

http://www.katespadeoutlets.us/ Kate Spade Outlet

http://www.adidas-outlet.org/ Adidas Outlet

http://www.nikeairmax-90.com/ Nike Air Max 90

http://www.timberland-outlet.us/ Timberland Outlet

http://www.rayban-sunglasses.ca/ Ray-Ban Sunglasses

http://www.adidas-nmd.org.uk/ Adidas UK

http://www.ralphlaurens.org.uk/ Ralph Lauren UK

http://www.jordan4.us/ Jordan 4

http://www.cheapjordan-shoes.com/ Cheap Jordan

http://www.adidasnmdoutlet.com/ NMD Outlet

John said...

air jordan retro
coach outlet online
coach factory outlet store
moncler coats
coach outlet online
discount oakley sunglasses
patriots jerseys
michael kors outlet store
tory burch outlet online
ralph lauren sale clearance uk
20170727yuanyuan

aaa kitty20101122 said...

gucci belt
nmd
michael kors outlet store
adidas nmd runner
yeezy shoes
prada sunglasses
adidas nmd
nike air force 1
adidas nmd r1
nike air force

aaa kitty20101122 said...

adidas superstar
led shoes
jordans for cheap
yeezys
asics shoes
air jordan shoes
lacoste outlet
kobe shoes
adidas superstar shoes
true religion outlet

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...